Includes bibliographical references and index.

Machine generated contents note: 1 Observational Studies -- 1.1 What Are Observational Studies?-- 1.2 Some Observational Studies-- 1.3 Purpose of This Book-- 1.4 Bibliographic Notes-- 1.5 References-- 2 Randomized Experiments -- 2.1 Introduction and Example: A Randomized Clinical Trial-- 2.2 The Lady Tasting Tea-- 2.3 Randomized Experiments-- 2.4 Testing the Hypothesis of No Treatment Effect-- 2.5 Simple Models for Treatment Effects-- 2.6 Confidence Intervals-- 2.7 Point Estimates-- 2.8 *More Complex Outcomes-- 2.9 *Appendix: Effect Increasing Tests Under Alternatives. -- 2.10 *Appendix: The Set of Treatment Assignments-- 2.11 Bibliographic Notes-- 2.12 Problems-- 2.13 References-- 3 Overt Bias in Observational Studies -- 3.1 Introduction: An Example and Planning Adjustments-- 3.2 Adjustments by Exact Stratification and Matching-- 3.3 Case-Referent Studies-- 3.4 *Small Sample Inference with an Unknown Propensity Score -- 3.5 *Large Sample Inference with an Unknown Propensity Score -- 3.6 *Inexact Matching Followed by Stratification-- 3.7 Bibliographic Notes-- 3.8 Problems -- 3.9 References-- 4 Sensitivity to Hidden Bias -- 4.1 What Is a Sensitivity Analysis?-- 4.2 A Model for Sensitivity Analysis-- 4.3 Matched Pairs-- 4.4 Sensitivity Analysis for Sign-Score Statistics-- 4.5 Multiple Controls and Continuous Responses-- 4.6 Sensitivity Analysis for Two Unmatched Groups-- 4.7 Appendix: Technical Results and Proofs-- 4.8 Bibliographic Notes-- 4.9 Problems-- 4.10 References -- 5 Models for Treatment Effects -- 5.1 Effects That Vary from Person to Person-- 5.2 Order Statistics-- 5.3 Dilated Effects-- 5.4 Instrumental Variables-- 5.5 Attributable Effects: Binary Responses-- 5.6 Attributable Effects: Displacements-- 5.7 Inference About a Quantile-- 5.8 Bibliographic Notes-- 5.9 Problems-- 5.10 Appendix: Minimum Wage Data-- 5.11 References-- 6 Known Effects -- 6.1 Detecting Hidden Bias Using Known Effects-- 6.2 An Outcome Known to Be Unaffected by the Treatment. -- 6.3 An Outcome With Known Direction of Effect-- 6.4 *The Behavior of T* with Nonnegative Effects-- 6.5 Bias of Known Direction-- 6.6 Bibliographic Notes-- 6.7 Problems -- 6.8 References-- 7 Multiple Reference Groups in Case-Referent Studies -- 7.1 Multiple Reference Groups-- 7.2 Matched Studies with Two Referent Groups-- 7.3 *Appendix: Selection and Hidden Bias-- 7.4 *Appendix: Derivation of Bounds for Sensitivity Analysis -- 7.5 Bibliographic Notes-- 7.6 Problems -- 7.7 References-- 8 Multiple Control Groups -- 8.1 The Role of a Second Control Group-- 8.2 Selecting Control Groups-- 8.3 Comparing Outcomes in Two Control Groups-- 8.4 Bibliographic Notes-- 8.5 Problems-- 8.6 References-- 9 Coherence and Focused Hypotheses -- 9.1 Coherent Associations-- 9.2 Signed Rank Statistics for Coherent Predictions-- 9.3 Example: Do Anesthetic Gases Cause Mutations?-- 9.4 *Properties of the Coherent Signed Rank Test-- 9.5 Some Other Forms of Coherence-- 9.6 Strengths and Limitations of Coherence-- 9.7 *Appendix: Arrangement-Increasing Functions of Matrices -- 9.8 Bibliographic Notes-- 9.9 Problems -- 9.10 References -- 10 Constructing Matched Sets and Strata -- 10.1 Introduction: Propensity Scores, Structures, Algorithms -- 10.2 The Propensity Score-- 10.3 Optimal Strata-- 10.4 Optimal Matching-- 10.5 Bibliographic Notes-- 10.6 Software-- 10.7 Problems-- 10.8 References-- 11 Planning an Observational Study -- 11.1 Introduction and Some Ground Rules-- 11.2 Three Observational Studies-- 11.3 Choice of Research Hypothesis-- 11.4 A Control Group-- 11.5 Defining Treated and Control Groups-- 11.6 Competing Theories-- 11.7 Internal Replication-- 11.8 Nondose Nonresponse: An Absent Association-- 11.9 Stability Analyses-- 11.10 Abrupt, Short-Lived Treatments-- 11.11 Natural Blocks-- 11.12 Refute Several Alternative Explanations-- 11.13 Bibliographic Notes-- 11.14 Problems-- 11.15 References-- 12 Some Strategic Issues -- 12.1 What Are Strategic Issues?-- 12.2 Some Specific Suggestions-- 12.3 References.